A statement of expected future occurrences. Weather forecasting includes the use of objective models based on certain atmospheric parameters, along with the skill and experience of a meteorologist.

The results of extrapolating a particular past growth of a population into the future when at least some of the independent variables are given in social or economic terms or when the greater or lesser probability of demographic variables is posited in a social-economic framework. ALSO, A projection in which the assumptions are considered to yield a realistic picture of the probable future development of a population.

The role of forecasting in the weather market is generally limited except where contract periods are close to the present date. The analysis of historic data is more important GTZ A modification to the HDD index where values only accrue if a second trigger is breached. If this trigger is breached then the increment to the GTZ index is the same as for the HDD Eg GTZ with 18,15 triggers Temp 17 gives HDD 1, GTZ 0 Temp 16 gives HDD 2, GTZ 0 Temp 15 gives HDD 3, GTZ 3 Temp 15 gives HDD 4, GTZ 4

Forecasts are projections that represent the producer's best guess based upon an evaluation of past trends and techniques.

Projections tempered by policy estimates which strive to reconcile past and current trends with current and anticipated policy.

an estimate of the market surprise for each crop report